Weapons of mass distraction
Iran, Syria, Russia, the UK, China, Spain, and Venezuela.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. Trump’s threats won’t be seen as simply about WMDs.
SYRIA. RUSSIA. Old frenemies still need each other.
BRITAIN. CHINA. Xi and Starmer seek harmony, not conformity.
SPAIN. An experiment in open borders minus the megaphone.
VENEZUELA. A crude awakening for Caracas.
Geopolitical Dispatch is a daily strategic briefing for business leaders and investors, based on the US Presidential Daily Brief. Covering five top global developments at 5 am Eastern Time, Geopolitical Dispatch gives you visibility of events in context.
IRAN. Essence of indecision
Trump’s threats won’t be seen as simply about WMDs.
Oil prices rose for a third day after Donald Trump threatened Iran with an attack “far worse” than June 2025 unless it made a deal on “no nuclear weapons”. France said it would support the EU proscribing the Islamic Revolutionary Guards.
INTELLIGENCE. Trump said that time was “truly of the essence”, but Tehran has heard the warnings before. If anything, it will see his latest threats as being about regime change, not any alleged weapons program, making it less willing to engage. Tehran has repeatedly said it wants to return to the Obama-era JCPOA, which, while flawed, at least provided a sense of stockpiles and capabilities. It has threatened to strike Tel Aviv in response to any US attack.
FOR BUSINESS. Tehran can’t afford to look weak in the wake of mass protests. It also can’t afford to see a split reemerge in its senior ranks should the part of the regime that negotiates with Trump end up at cross purposes with the part that doesn’t. Tehran will hope Trump TACOs on his own volition, perhaps if some face-saving agreement to disagree can be found. And with his narrative on Minnesota now being reclaimed, he has fewer reasons to distract
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SYRIA. RUSSIA. Hostage diplomacy
Old frenemies still need each other.
Vladimir Putin hosted Ahmed al-Sharaa in Moscow Wednesday amid reports Russian troops were withdrawing from Qamishli near Turkey’s border. Moscow declined to comment on whether it had been asked to extradite Bashar al-Assad.
INTELLIGENCE. Russia’s exit from Qamishli, a largely Kurdish city, has been seen by