Week signals: All’s unfair in politics and war
Plus: watch points for the US, Britain, Japan, India, and Canada.
This week:
IN REVIEW. A week of unfairness and five predictions for the next quarter.
UP AHEAD. The US debates, the special relationship, the next Japanese prime minister, tensions in India, and Justin Trudeau.
The Week in Review: Truth and injustice
The week began with two elections in Germany, where the far right, despite a surge in votes, was thwarted. It ended with the appointment of a prime minister in France, where the far left, despite coming first in the legislature, was thwarted too. In between, there was disaster in Ukraine, intrigue in the Middle East, further signs of state collapse in Haiti, Libya and Myanmar, further signs of institutional collapse in Mexico, Venezuela and Tunisia, and a visit by Vladimir Putin to Mongolia.
It's hard to draw a connecting thread, but the week reinforced two themes seen over the year: might makes right, and rules are made to be broken. Neither is new – there’s no such place as Utopia (the original Greek literally means ‘nowhere’) – but the rise of multipolarity has proven, if anything, the triumph of realpolitik over any rules-based order.
By themselves, none of the week’s events prove a turning point. The German and French systems allow for minority government. Mongolia won’t be the first or last ICC member to ignore a warrant. As General Sherman once said, war is hell. But claims of injustice, spurious or real, echo lines being used every day in virtually all countries; claims which themselves are eroding the reputation of institutions from the local courtroom to the international system.
While cynicism governs global politics, a sense of injustice animates the discourse. It’s tempting to shake your fist at the news, but this isn’t the best way to understand and anticipate what’s next. Dealing with the facts doesn’t mean endorsing them. Forecasting an outcome doesn’t mean desiring it. Political analysis has always been hard to disentangle from political practice, or political philosophy (where bias is a feature, not a bug), but it’s vital to try.
We list five things to watch for in the coming week below, but with the above in mind, and as a new season starts, it’s perhaps a good opportunity to provide five scenarios to consider for the coming quarter as well: