Week signals: Beyond belief
Plus: watch points for Central America, Turkey, Germany, Mongolia, and South Korea.
This week:
IN REVIEW. Epistemic asymmetry, the long tail of politics, and conspiracy theories.
UP AHEAD. Yankees go home, Turks convene, Germans vote, Putin travels, and a Japan-Korea swansong.
The Week in Review: The tribe has spoken
There are myths that refuse to die, despite the lack of evidence. From ancient aliens to Atlantis, Hyperborea to the Hollow Earth, it can be surprising how many people still believe.
One of the quotes attributed to Churchill, but which he probably never said, is "the best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter." That’s a bit unfair, but it says something about the gulf between politics and the public, rulers and the ruled. And not just in terms of income, incentives, or information, but beliefs.
One of our motivations for starting Geopolitical Dispatch was to bring a product like the President’s Daily Brief to a business and investor audience. We wanted not only to bridge the information asymmetry between government and the market, but the belief asymmetry, helping readers think about issues the way a political leader would (or should).
The gulf between governments and markets, in perspectives, assumptions and analysis, is wide. And this isn’t due to anything nefarious but mainly to professional silos. Despite the revolving door, little epistemic transfer occurs, at least on geopolitics. And in debates from China to Russia, supply chains to tech, the gap between those who follow economics and markets, and those who follow security and strategy can be seemingly unbridgeable.
Such belief asymmetries were seen this week. From the gap between Berlin and the median voter on migration, to that between Democrats and Republicans on almost everything, the tensions are obvious. From Israel to Palestine, Russia to Ukraine, India to Bangladesh, it’s not just a gap between politicians and voters, but between political tribes.
A tribe that, until recently, was shunned as heretical, is the tribe of populism. It’s always been there, and has often been in the majority. But during the Great Moderation of the 1980s to 2007, it was largely relegated to late night TV, taxis, and talkback radio. Today, it’s found a voice not just in Donald Trump, but Robert F Kennedy Jr, Sahra Wagenknecht, Viktor Orban, Elon Musk and others. The decline of mainstream punditry and the rise of social media has given the long tail of politics more prominence. The internet means no belief is too niche, nor opinion too strange.
And this isn’t just a right-wing phenomenon (RFK is an ex-Democrat, Wagenknecht an ex-Communist). Populism comes in many hues, but what unites it is the belief that elites – both the ruling class, and the shapers of consensus – are hiding something. And while this makes many populist beliefs liable to circular logic, magical thinking and unfalsifiable claims, there’s often more than a kernel of truth as well.