Week signals: Blaze new world
Plus: watch points for Venezuela, Thailand, the Caucasus, Croatia, and the Indian Ocean.
This week:
IN REVIEW. Crossing the Rubicon, 'total politics', Arctic provocations, unintended consequences, and what you’ve been missing.
UP AHEAD. Venezuela's day after, the next BRIC to fall, the Zangezur corridor, and elections in Croatia and Comoros.
The Week in Review: Sound and fury
As we suggested in November, Joe Biden’s lame-duck period would be eventful. A political interregnum within a geopolitical interregnum, there would be incentives for score-settling and escalation, not to mention the type of confusion and adventurism that accompanies any period when most are on vacation.
It was thus with trepidation that we wrote our last Week Signals on 21 December, shortly after the fall of Syria, a no-confidence vote in Germany, and the resignation of Chrystia Freeland in Canada. And now, on 11 January, we face threats of regime change in Iran, Elon Musk meddling in Berlin (and London), and Justin Trudeau's resignation (just as Donald Trump escalates threats to annex Canada). It’s no comfort that last night was the 2073rd anniversary of Caesar crossing the Rubicon.
The year 2025 is off to an inauspicious start, with "total politics" its emerging theme. Like the concept of "total war" – popularised by Erich Ludendorff's infamous doctrine Der totale Krieg – total politics is a state where no means are unjustified and no methods off limits. It’s a condition where no quarter is given to adversaries, and legislative scorched earth is normalised. And as in real war, taboos like collective punishment and sabotage are quickly broken.
After a year focussed on Europe and the Middle East, total politics has this past month been seen most vividly in the Western Hemisphere. From Greenland to Panama, the US president-elect has (again) publicly sought to acquire allied territories. In Venezuela, a sham inauguration was met with barely a whimper (though the US increased Nicolas Maduro’s bounty to $25 million). In California, devastating fires have been blamed by the left on greedy utilities and developers, and by the right on diversity hires and homeless migrants. And while other suspects like climate change and poor forest management likely played a part too, these causes and consequences have been drowned out in the partisan cacophony. A bonfire of the vanities to some. A harbinger of hell to others.
But before moving to other events, Trump’s remarks on Greenland, Canada and Panama deserve some commentary. We think the likeliest explanation is bluster – another dead cat on the dealroom table – designed to spook foreign counterparts and distract domestic audiences. Trump is already rolling back previous commitments. A 24-hour deadline on Ukraine has become a 6-month aspiration (though an early meeting with Vladimir Putin is now on the cards). Elon Musk’s promise to cut $2 trillion from the budget is now admitted as “not realistic” (and perhaps this also explains his sudden pivot to German and British identity politics).
Yet even if taking over most of North America is just pre-inauguration trolling – before the constraints of governance remove the toys – this rhetorical return to the Monroe Doctrine risks encouraging other ambit sphere of influence claims. With Vladimir Putin invading Ukraine and Xi Jinping threatening Taiwan, this is not only reckless but consequential. And the risk doesn’t end there. Turkey’s Tayyip Erdogan has made no secret of his designs on Syria. Venezuela’s Maduro wants Guyana. Even democracies like Israel, Japan, India and the Philippines have strong irredentist movements.
As for Trump’s reasons, on Greenland, as we warned GD Pro subscribers last month, Denmark isn’t vulnerable because its denuded military (which has sent much of its supplies to Ukraine) can’t fight US F-35s with dogsleds, but because its largest company, Novo Nordisk, contributes around $30 billion annually to the US trade deficit. And should Ozempic and Wegovy be subsidised on Medicare, as Biden has proposed, the bill will only grow.
Similarly, Canada isn’t vulnerable because its military wouldn’t survive a US invasion, but because in Trump’s view its firms (accurately or not) still enjoy unfair subsidies under USMCA, which Trump will want to renegotiate. Threats to create a 51st state, likewise, are “to encourage the others” – those allies who similarly may be stinting on defence or continuing to employ overt industrial policy. And in the aftermath of CHIPS and IRA Act-style subsidies – and amid threats to increase NATO’s spending target to 5% (unrealistic even for Washington) – the list is long.
As for Panama, there’s plenty of room to negotiate reduced canal fees and plenty of Panamanian politicians, including jailed ex-president Ricardo Martinelli, who would be happy to see the increased pressure (Martinelli helped Trump build a 70-story hotel there in 2011). Efforts to stall migrant crossings over the Darien Gap and ease mining restrictions (which could ironically benefit Canadian investors the most), could also come into negotiation.
So don’t expect another Louisiana or Alaska Purchase, but do expect unintended consequences from Trump’s recent provocations. China has already offered an olive branch to Canada in the hope it may exploit the situation. Russia has made dark warnings about the Arctic’s balance of power. And just as the invasion of Iraq or the war in Gaza has been invoked in whataboutist claims throughout the world, expect Trump’s bullying to justify bad acts by others.
Elsewhere, the last three weeks have been punctuated by terrorist attacks in Las Vegas and New Orleans, a gas crisis in central Europe and the alleged shooting of a civilian aircraft in Chechnya. We’ve also had an earthquake in Tibet, a standoff between presidential guards and police in Seoul, more cable cutting from Finland to Taiwan, cyber hacks at the US Treasury, and bond market ructions from London to New York. This has almost completely overshadowed several other key developments, from Indonesia joining the BRICS to Ivory Coast kicking out France’s military.
Considering the news flow, we wanted to cover five things you’ve likely missed but should be aware of, in addition to our usual five things in the week ahead. We’ll return to our usual, and more condensed, programming next Saturday, as well as our daily dispatches starting from Monday.
Here’s what happened while you were out of the office: