Week signals: Filling voids, slaying dragons
Plus: watch points for the US election, Venezuela, the UK, Israel, and African protests.
This week:
IN REVIEW. Ungoverned spaces, contested regions, and the limits to US power.
UP AHEAD. Trump faces a campaign crossroads, migrants from Venzeula and migrants in the UK, Israel prepares for rockets, and Africa prepares for protests.
The Week in Review: Joe Biden faces tough choices and tougher constraints
Early mapmakers would sometimes fill in the blanks – terra incognita or mare incognitum – with fantastic beasts. The phrase "here be dragons" was used at least once. Today, with satellites and Streetview, there are few parts unknown (although the suboceanic surface is largely unexplored). But metaphorically at least, there are still plenty of dragons in ungoverned spaces and contested regions alike.
The week began with at least 50 Russians killed in the wilds of northern Mali. A photo of Caucasian fighters holding a Ukrainian flag alongside Tuareg bandits was subsequently published on social media. This is classic ungoverned spaces stuff. Much of the Sahel – once filled with US drones and French troops – now forms a permeable membrane between Europe and sub-Saharan Africa, through which drug and human traffickers, the modern-day dragons, flow.
In terms of contested regions, the early part of the week also saw a fraudulent vote, in what used to be considered Washington's backyard, with barely a consequence. Days later, Israel sent a rocket into Beirut and blew up a bomb in Tehran, killing the leaders of Hezbollah's military wing and Hamas's political wing respectively. As with the vote in Venezuela, the US said something about de-escalation, but did little else.
Much has been said about the decline of Pax Americana and the rise of a multipolar order, including by us, but seldom has there been a week – even by 2024’s standards – where it's been so apparent. The week at least ended on a brighter note for US power, when Washington and Moscow agreed a prisoner swap via Turkey. We admit bias here (Damien is a friend of one of the hostages, Evan Gershkovich), but it was a great day for the Biden administration.
It begs the question if this was just a blip or could herald a bigger deal with Russia to end the war in Ukraine, denying Donald Trump yet another foreign policy victory should he win the White House (still a more than even chance, which we’ll explain in the Week Ahead, despite a chaotic week for him). Here are some reasons for and against a deal: