Week signals: Third candidates, third ways, third rails
Plus Germany, Lebanon, Yemen, Taiwan, and Bolivia.
The Week in Review: The paradox of political choice
After Thursday’s unedifying US debate, thoughts have turned to third candidates, whether within the Democratic Party (Gavin Newsom has re-emerged as a favourite, though that begs the question on the point of having a running mate), or beyond (Robert F Kennedy Jr has been polling since April at between 5% and 10%).
The appeal of third alternatives is not just an American phenomenon. In Britain, holding elections on Thursday, for many it’s not just a race between Labour and the Conservatives, but the Liberal Democrats (forecast by some to win more seats than the Tories, despite a smaller overall vote), the Scottish National Party, Reform UK, and others.
A three-legged race will also happen in France this weekend. Emmanuel Macron controversially called an early legislative election when his centrist coalition did poorly on 9 June. But in what may come to be seen as his most reckless gamble, he has set the conditions not for a second round between his party and its chief rival – the far-right National Rally (RN) – but a contest between RN and the socialist left.
It's a cautionary tale that not all political problems are solved by a political alternative. For mainstream voters wanting a different choice, a third party or third candidate can end up splitting the vote or delivering unexpected outcomes. And for third parties themselves, politics has a way of reasserting the traditional left-right binary, even if effort is made to forge a third way.
“Third way” movements are a mixed bag. Today, it’s a term associated with the radical centre of Macron, but also the social democracy of Tony Blair's New Labour and Bill Clinton's New Democrats. Earlier, it described systems as diverse as Tito's Yugoslavia, Saddam's Iraq and Franco's Spain. Others – from the neo-fascist Third Position to the cult-like syncretism of Lyndon LaRouche – have also claimed to represent a perfect balance of left and right.
Third ways thus don’t have much to unite them, except in what happens when they take power. The gravitational pull of progressivism at one end, conservatism at the other, tends to either tear these movements apart (e.g., Blair to Corbyn; Clinton to Sanders), render them irrelevant (the LibDems under most British governments; Macronism in the coming days), or send them into issues-based cul-de-sacs (environmentalism, agrarianism, ethno-nationalism, secessionism, etc.).
Third way candidates and third way politics can thus hit the political third rail, to use former Speaker Tip O'Neill's phrase. This can be through the hijacking of special interests, which appeal to the base, but turn off the mainstream, or the hijacking of coalitions, where joining a larger government destroys party purity. The former is a reason why third parties have failed to get traction in places like the US. The latter is a reason why they tend to blow up in places like Australia and Canada.
Returning to France, tomorrow’s election may thus not just be a cautionary tale then for Macron – a third way insurgent now on the nose – but for the probable victors, RN, who while firmly at one end of the political spectrum are nonetheless seen as a radical third-way break from the traditional left/right system.
Can RN survive the compromises of administration? Can it continue to energise its base while governing for the majority? Examples like Italy’s Giorgia Meloni and a potential second-term Donald Trump suggest it might. Examples like the Sweden Democrats and Poland’s Law and Justice suggest it won’t. That is, unless it goes down the well-trodden path of institutional capture and soft autocracy, which parties of the far-right and far-left have been known to favour as a means to stay in power
And that’s a third way almost nobody wants.
The Week Ahead
GERMANY. Watch for AfD missteps
Alternative for Germany (AfD) will look at Trump’s resurgence, the rise of Reform UK, and the probable success of RN in France as vindication for their national populism. But unlike the US, the UK or France, Germany has a viable centre right, the Christian Democratic Union (and the Christian Social Union in Bavaria). AfD will likely do well in upcoming eastern state elections, but its national appeal is vastly overestimated. And its hauteur is already leading it to make grave missteps (like candidates’ use of Nazi slogans).
LEBANON. Watch for Saudi Arabia
As Israel and Hezbollah inch toward war, eyes are on the Iranians, the Americans and to some extent the Turks and Russians. But don’t forget the Saudis, who have leverage on both sides. In times past, the Kingdom was not afraid to exercise its sway. In 2017, it effectively imprisoned Lebanon's prime minister at the Ritz Carlton, forcing him to resign in a ploy to oust Hezbollah. This backfired (as did the leaking of 2008 plans to set up a pan-Arab army to fight the militia) but there's plenty of influence Saudi money can still buy.
YEMEN. Watch for a more forceful response
A US-led naval taskforce has been surprisingly timid in dealing with Yemen’s Houthis, who continue to disrupt shipping in the Red Sea and beyond. So far, Washington has wanted to avoid a new front with an Iran-backed force more powerful than Hamas and larger than Hezbollah. But needing a pre-election foreign policy win (his debate references to Afghanistan weren’t exactly helpful), Joe Biden may be prepared to take more risk. He may also want to set early terms with Iran’s next president.
TAIWAN. Watch for a thaw
Rhetoric on both sides of the Taiwan Strait has intensified in recent weeks, following the inauguration of President Lai Ching-te. Beijing has said it will hunt down and execute independence “diehards”. Taipei has warned of combat patrols and against travel to the mainland. Yet ahead of the Chinese Communist Party’s Third Plenum, expect the focus to shift to the economy, at least temporarily, per previous such Central Committee plenaries. Amid weak consumption and shrinking investment, sabre rattling is not a growth strategy.
BOLIVIA. Watch for round two
A bizarre coup attempt came and went within hours Wednesday. The plot thickened when coup leader, ex-general Juan Jose Zuniga claimed to be acting on presidential orders (as a particularly theatrical self-coup). This seems absurd even by Bolivia’s standards (it has had 190 coups, attempted coups and revolts), but the theory has been magnified by the president’s former boss turned rival Evo Morales. Whether true or not, it destabilises an already fragile country. And one with the world’s largest lithium reserves.
Michael Feller is Chief Strategist at Geopolitical Strategy. LinkedIn.
(Please note none of this is investment advice).