Week signals: Voting and weighing
Week signals: Voting and weighing
Plus: watch points for Japan, Austria, India, the US, and Mexico.
This week:
IN REVIEW. Events in and beyond New York.
UP AHEAD. Japan's new leader, Austria's election, India's regionalism, America's dockworkers, and Mexico's inauguration.
The Week in Review: Preparing for an October surprise
The week began with the appointment of a new government in France and the end of an old one in Japan. In between, the government in Czechia came close to collapse, Bolivia's faced off an insurrection, and Sri Lanka's was dissolved with the election of a new president. There were also coup attempts, claimed or real, in Benin, Guinea, and Burkina Faso. Much of South Beirut was reduced to rubble, and reports surfaced that Hezbollah’s Hassan Nasrallah may have been killed. Rockets, including from Yemen, were sent into Israel in return. A hurricane hit Florida, killing over 40.
Most of the focus, however, was on events in New York. Not so much the indictment of Eric Adams – though there is a geopolitical dimension to that story (Turkey) – but the arrival of leaders for the UN’s annual ‘high-level’ week.
Usually, UN leader weeks are a cacophony of nothing. Last year’s was a case in point. Only one of the P5’s leaders turned up. The green marble bully pulpit was instead used by a range of lesser names speaking to an empty room.
But this year was different. Biden gave his final UN speech. Macron outlined a new world order. Zelensky appealed for Ukraine’s defence. Most of all, Benjamin Netanyahu and Iran’s Masoud Pezeshkian spoke, with their very presence forestalling even further escalation (though many argue Netanyahu timed his assault on Beirut to coincide with the UN). It showed the true purpose of diplomacy – jaw-jaw, not war-war – and returned the UN to its role as convener.
Yet the coming week brings an end to the proceedings and a start to October, when speculation begins on what will be this year’s US election ‘October surprise’ (we share our pick in the second part of this report). It will also see a ramp-up in the campaigns. Kamala Harris is leading Donald Trump in most national polls, but the electoral college projections remain too close to call. And with so many variables, and so much noise, who can really say?
One thing that’s certain is that other states will use, and are using, a close race to further their own aims. We’re seeing Israel and Ukraine leverage their interests with both sides of the aisle (as would be expected). We’re also seeing increased election interference from US adversaries. And then there are actors, such as in Myanmar and Sudan, who are seeking to move while nobody’s looking (and perhaps this also explains the rise in attempted coups).
The other certainty is that politics will carry on beyond the US and, as the world moves from unipolarity to something else, this will matter more than in previous years. Beyond the endless headlines Trump generates, it’s still essential to watch what’s occurring elsewhere. And this isn’t just in terms of how these events may impact the United States.