Week signals: You can’t fool all the people all the time
Plus: watch points for the US, NATO, Italy, Ukraine, Russia, and Kyrgyzstan.
The Week in Review: The gaslighter's serenade
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In the meantime, there’s been lots of media interaction over the election just finished in the UK, the one about to take place in France, and the one thrown into a speculative frenzy in the US.
On the UK, it’s hard to argue with the view Labour’s historic win was a repudiation of the Conservatives’ 14 years in office and poor handling of Brexit. That said, as noted yesterday, the forces that defeated Rishi Sunak could one day do the same for Keir Starmer. It was only in 2019 when Labour’s Jeremy Corbyn faced a huge rout to Boris Johnson. Labour picked up 411 seats, but with only 34% of the vote, a share less than the Tories and Reform UK combined.
On France, anger with Emmanuel Macron (we’ll know its extent tomorrow) is less over his handling of the EU – though this too can be critiqued – than his self-described “Jupiterian” style and insouciance on everyday concerns. Like in much of the world, people are struggling to make ends meet. Public services are seen to have eroded. There's a creeping social atomisation. Grand projects, and aspirations to global leadership, aren’t what people voted for.
On the US, speculation Joe Biden is about to be replaced remains just that. On the balance of probabilities, we see it as unlikely for several reasons. First,