What has been will be again
Israel, Palestine, Iran, Russia, China, the US, Brazil, and Sierra Leone.
The five things you need to know today:
ISRAEL. PALESTINE. A Gaza ceasefire seems unlikely, or at least not yet.
IRAN. RUSSIA. Two pariahs exploit each other’s isolation.
CHINA. UNITED STATES. New AI trade curbs will complicate any Trump-Xi deal.
SOCIAL MEDIA. Brazil becomes the latest state to restrict teen smartphone use.
SIERRA LEONE. Mpox finds a new epicentre.
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ISRAEL. PALESTINE. No news under the sun
A Gaza ceasefire seems unlikely, or at least not yet.
Gaza was "on the brink" of a ceasefire, Joe Biden told the State Department Monday in his final policy speech. Israeli officials said pressure from Donald Trump and the collapse of Syria had brought Hamas to the negotiating table.
INTELLIGENCE. Many ceasefire deals have been promised before, only to collapse due to last-minute opposition from hardliners in Benjamin Netanyahu’s cabinet. Today’s difference is that Israel’s opposition has offered Netanyahu a parliamentary “safety net” should ultranationalists like Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich leave his coalition over a deal. And Iran’s diminished position has likely made Hamas more willing to accept the hardliners’ stringent terms.
FOR BUSINESS. It’s believed around 30 hostages will be released to seal the truce, with negotiations for more to start on day 16. It’s possible this will be agreed by Trump, who can then blame Biden if it fails. Yet for Israel, the optics of a day-1 gift to the new president (ironically mirroring Iran’s release of hostages on Regan’s inauguration), may be too valuable to relinquish prematurely. And Trump’s social media criticism suggests Netanyahu needs to curry favour.
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IRAN. RUSSIA. Frenemies unite
Two pariahs exploit each other’s isolation.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian would visit Moscow this week to sign a comprehensive strategic partnership, the Kremlin said Monday. Belarus's president would soon visit China, media said. Iran had begun selling oil stored in Dalian.
INTELLIGENCE. The “Axis of Upheaval” may be boosting cooperation ahead of Trump’s inauguration and amid tighter Western economic restrictions, but