Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
UNITED STATES. Trump looks set to play the sore loser.
ISRAEL. IRAN. Tensions remain locked in escalation mode.
SAUDI ARABIA. YEMEN. Aramco surges, as do the Houthis.
POLAND. Tusk navigates Nawrocki, the markets, and Moscow.
INDONESIA. Prabowo tries to smoke out his enemies.
🇺🇸The midterms are done. Join our subscriber webinars this Thursday (US) and Friday (Europe, Asia) for the full analysis on what this means for you.🇺🇸
UNITED STATES. When the tide goes out
Trump looks set to play the sore loser.
The Democrats swept the House and Senate, including via historic upsets in Kansas, Texas, and South Carolina. Donald Trump railed against Fox News for media bias and said if he were on the ballot, “we would have won IN A LANDSLIDE!”
INTELLIGENCE. The result was conclusive, including because it came on record turnout for many states. Trump and MAGA Republicans may dispute the outcome, or seek to delay its confirmation, but barring any extraordinary events, the Democrats look set to take the levers of Congress in the new year. Still, there’s much damage a hurt and vengeful president can do at home and abroad, particularly when enabled by officials whose necks are now also on the line.
FOR BUSINESS. The Democrats may not impeach Trump, who’ll still have his veto to keep Congress cooperative, but they’ll almost certainly go after his associates, both in and outside the administration. Tesla and SpaceX fell in after-hours trading. Betting market odds for a pre-emptive firing of Pete Hegseth (who may also be a convenient scapegoat on Iran) have risen. The war is being blamed for Trump’s loss. Yet ironically, that loss may now cause its escalation.
ISRAEL. IRAN. Not cut and dried
Tensions remain locked in escalation mode.
Trump said the US would cut $4 billion in annual military funding to Israel and had no immediate plans to strike Iran. Israel had given the US intelligence that Iran was considering the use of chemical weapons, the New York Times said.