What's good for the goose is good for Malacca
Indonesia, Iran, Israel, Lebanon, Russia, and prediction markets.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
INDONESIA. A joke on tolls should be taken seriously, not literally.
IRAN. Amid a stalemate, Trump talks up his inaction.
ISRAEL. LEBANON. The protagonists undermine their own ceasefire.
RUSSIA. Putin’s economic windfall could bring political headwinds.
PREDICTION MARKETS. The drums beat loud for the fortune-tellers of war.
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INDONESIA. Fulcrum's errand
A joke on tolls should be taken seriously, not literally.
Foreign Minister Sugiono said tariffs would not be imposed on Malacca Strait transits after Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa told an infrastructure forum that Indonesia might want to split a toll between Malaysia and Singapore.
INTELLIGENCE. Indonesia sees itself as a “fulcrum” between the Indian and Pacific Oceans. It also takes ministerial comments lightly. Purbaya’s remarks were seen as a joke, as was President Prabowo Subianto’s 8 April comparison between Malacca and Hormuz. Yet Indonesia has closed archipelagic passages before, notably the Sunda Strait. As Iran sets a precedent, and finances worsen on the economic shock, there’ll be temptation to follow farce with tragedy.
FOR BUSINESS. Javanese humour is subtle and ironic, but tolling Malacca, through which 40% of the world’s trade passes, caused diplomatic palpitations. Purbaya may have been freewheeling, but many of Jakarta’s policies, from free school meals to nationalised mines to a capital in the Borneo jungle to joining the Board of Peace, were born in a fit of absent-mindedness. Malaysia responded that tolls couldn’t be unilateral. That’s hardly an outright rejection.
IRAN. Sweeper generalisations
Amid a stalemate, Trump talks up his inaction.
Oil rose as Iran posted a video of a stormed cargo ship and the US said this didn’t breach the truce. Donald Trump said US minesweepers were clearing the Strait of Hormuz and the navy had shoot-to-kill orders against anyone laying them.
INTELLIGENCE. Commercial data suggests there are no US minesweepers near