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Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. Crude falls as Tehran deepens control of Hormuz.
SAUDI ARABIA. PAKISTAN. Middle powers partner to pivot.
INDIA. BANGLADESH. Delhi’s disdain could cost it Dhaka.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. A secret visit is made conspicuous.
CANADA. Trump and Carney go after the same battleground.
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IRAN. Outcast, outflanked
Crude falls as Tehran deepens control of Hormuz.
Iran said Hormuz remained closed though it had agreed to clear mines with Oman to establish a “joint temporary navigational corridor”. Donald Trump said the US Navy had already cleared all mines in the strait. Oil futures sharply fell.
INTELLIGENCE. Reports of a Pakistan-brokered truce, where the US would cancel “Operation Economic Outcast” in exchange for Iran opening the strait, seem overblown. Tehran is unlikely to agree to anything less than the maximalist positions already conveyed, at least until after the midterms, or US oil stocks are even lower. But a deal with Oman seems possible, and would concur with satellite imagery of increased Iraqi loadings ahead of a potential reopening.
FOR BUSINESS. If there was to be a purpose for Economic Outcast, it was to isolate Tehran. But sequential visits from Pakistan and Oman, as well as a refusal by China to comply with the US sanctions, suggest Iran still has frenemies to rely on. Buoying the optimism that it’s all another Trump feint are reports that US diplomats have started returning to the region. Still, amid other reports that Iran is targeting Trump’s son Barron, it could all change quickly.
SAUDI ARABIA. PAKISTAN. Nuclear options
Middle powers partner to pivot.
The White House had sent Congress a 30-year nuclear pact with Saudi Arabia contingent on Riyadh recognising Israel, officials said Tuesday. Pakistan told Bloomberg it expected positive US engagement on a $10 billion monetary backstop.
INTELLIGENCE. Washington is courting Riyadh to avoid it relying on Islamabad, and