What's the most you ever lost on a coin toss?
Iran, Israel, Lebanon, Algeria, Ukraine, Russia, and the US.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. Trump seeks more time for his predicament.
ISRAEL. The tail that wagged the dog has caught the car.
ALGERIA. A gas producer comes in from the cold.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. A war of attrition leads to creative financing.
UNITED STATES. The president shows the colour of his money.
And don’t forget to connect with me on LinkedIn.
IRAN. Heads you win, TACOs I lose
Trump seeks more time for his predicament.
Donald Trump extended a deadline to not strike energy facilities by 10 days, citing an Iranian request. Earlier social media posts described Iran as “decimated” and “strange”. The US may send another 10,000 troops, the Wall Street Journal said.
INTELLIGENCE. Trump and the White House have been tweeting a storm, including cryptic images and videos. But whether to intimidate or distract, it seems to be doing neither. Iran continues to hit US and allied targets. Most regional bases have been made uninhabitable. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Markets are choppy. The Treasury is reportedly wargaming $200-per-barrel scenarios, while interest in $150 call options has increased tenfold.
FOR BUSINESS. Having already extended his deadline by two then five days, Trump appears to be betting the Iranians will give up before he’s forced to either capitulate or escalate. The first option seems increasingly less likely than the others, both of which Trump will struggle to recover from. As it otherwise stands, the West is being effectively sanctioned by Iran, not the other way round, and Middle East security remains in a worse position than in decades.
ISRAEL. Netan exact science
The tail that wagged the dog has caught the car.
The IDF warned cabinet that conscription was needed before the army “collapsed”, Israeli media claimed Thursday. Polls showed little increase in Benjamin Netanyahu’s electoral support despite early victories in Iran. Two Israeli soldiers died.
INTELLIGENCE. Netanyahu saw a window to decapitate Iran and bring the US into a