When hell freezes over
Ukraine, Russia, the US, Bulgaria, Turkey, Israel, and Palestine.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. The EU tries to thwart Belgium on frozen assets.
UNITED STATES. Trump will find an easy scapegoat in Hegseth.
BULGARIA. Another election looms for a divided country.
TURKEY. A NATO ally is fast losing patience.
ISRAEL. PALESTINE. Washington seeks to leverage Netanyahu’s woes.
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UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Ice try
The EU tries to thwart Belgium on frozen assets.
Belgium hit back Wednesday at the EU’s latest proposal to use Euroclear-housed Russian assets in a €90 billion Ukraine budget plan, saying the use of anti-veto powers and a “loan” was too risky. Belgium arrested a former EU chief diplomat.
INTELLIGENCE. Ursula von der Leyen has proposed bypassing Hungary’s likely veto on using frozen Russian funds via a majority vote. Yet this might also bypass any Belgian veto and, despite the funds being “lent” (to be one day paid back via Russian reparations to Ukraine), it could still make Belgium specially liable for what Russia calls theft. More than that, it could jeopardise Euroclear’s role in global deposits. China and other customers will be watching.
FOR BUSINESS. Euroclear’s full weaponisation would be potent but risky from the perspective of Europe’s tenuous grip on capital markets. Even if Russia’s threats of retaliation are hollow, the precedent isn’t. The ECB’s refusal to be a backstop is telling. A final decision is due on 18 December. The alternative is a Covid-style joint bond, but this would weigh on member states. Belgium retains some leverage. Federica Mogherini’s arrest wasn’t linked but is illustrative.
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UNITED STATES. Department at war
Trump will find an easy scapegoat in Hegseth.
Democrats announced an impeachment effort against Pete Hegseth after a Pentagon inquiry said his use of Signal to discuss Houthi strikes risked US lives. A private testimony on the second strike of an alleged drug boat was scheduled.
INTELLIGENCE. Vice Admiral Frank Bradley, whom Hegseth has blamed for the call to