When losing is winning
Iran, the EU, the US, Brazil, and Cameroon.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. Markets celebrate a looming capitulation.
EUROPE. A migration gambit meets a wall of resistance.
UNITED STATES. A primary in Michigan could define 2028.
BRAZIL. Diplomatic downgrades are a re-election gift.
CAMEROON. A reshuffle portends a showdown.
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IRAN. Strait surrender
Markets celebrate a looming capitulation.
Brent futures fell to $78 as Donald Trump claimed talks with Iran were moving “very nicely’ and Scott Bessent said Hormuz could open today. Iranian media said the Strait would open subject to a lifting of all sanctions and full control.
INTELLIGENCE. Reading between the many and differing reports, even those indicating delay, it seems Iran will get most of what it wants. Markets may be prematurely celebrating a TACO, but even so, Trump won’t want to rain on their parade just to defend esoteric ideas like US hegemony or the petrodollar (assuming Iran tolls and it’s in RMB). At this stage, with US strategic reserves nearing 300 million barrels and weapons stocks even worse, only oil matters.
FOR BUSINESS. Iran will want to get the oil flowing as much as anyone, particularly if it can clip the ticket, but markets may be disappointed by the Gulf’s limited available barrels, estimated at just 23 million in floating storage, versus the 70 million that escaped during the ceasefire after 17 June. Elsewhere, Qatar’s force majeure continues for LNG, and refined products may long remain at a shortfall due to damage. Hardliners in Israel and Iran are also yet to weigh in.
EUROPE. Lost at Ceuta
A migration gambit meets a wall of resistance.
European interior ministers affirmed support for Spain and Italy downplayed its decision to introduce border checks after around 70,000 of 72,000 migrants who entered Ceuta had been returned. Labour moved ahead of Reform in UK polling.
INTELLIGENCE. If Morocco hoped to weaponise last week’s border crisis, as