When to fold 'em

Ukraine, Russia, Azerbaijan, France, New Caledonia, India, China, and Chile.

Seated Man with Folded Hands, Niels Bjerre, 1893, pencil on board, Statens Museum for Kunst, Copenhagen.

Hello,

Here are the five things you need to know today:

• UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Zelensky concedes to Trump's concessions.

• AZERBAIJAN. RUSSIA. The Kremlin retaliates against a former satellite.

• FRANCE. NEW CALEDONIA. Paris seeks to rescue a territorial compromise.

• INDIA. CHINA. Asia’s largest rivals gang up.

• CHILE. Campaigning begins for November’s election.

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UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Like a cheap suit

Zelensky concedes to Trump's concessions.

Volodymyr Zelensky said Monday he was ready to meet Vladimir Putin, possibly this month, following his "best" conversation with Donald Trump. Trump said the US would "help" Ukraine's security following a peace deal with Russia.

INTELLIGENCE. Zelensky's return to the White House, flanked by seven European leaders, was markedly different to his last visit. Seemingly ready to accept the loss of territory and a non-NATO defence guarantee – potentially led by Europe but coordinated by the US – it would appear the concessions have been all his. Yet Zelensky, who wore a coat at Trump's request and took pains to ingratiate with his host, cannot be blamed for having his cards traded for him.

FOR BUSINESS. Kyiv's concessions are simply those of Washington and Brussels. Moscow could still turn them away, but doing so would push its luck. Western security guarantees may be quibbled with, but without a formal role for NATO, they’re as meaningless as the 1994 Budapest Memorandum or the 2014 Minsk Agreement. Putin will thus likely soon claim victory. And while this will mean less killing, it will end any residual pretence of a rules-based order.

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AZERBAIJAN. RUSSIA. Bite Baku

The Kremlin retaliates against a former satellite.

Russian drones destroyed an Azerbaijan-owned oil depot in Odesa Monday. Hungary blamed Ukraine for attacks on the Druzhba pipeline. Kazakh oil exports via Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey fell on alleged Russian pipeline contamination.

INTELLIGENCE. There is a lot of disinformation in pipeline politics, but Russia seems