Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
UNITED STATES. A last-minute switch won’t swing the midterms.
IRAN. Talks to head off renewed attacks may buy little time.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Mysterious hacks hit Kyiv and Moscow.
POLAND. A judicial spat could backfire on Nawrocki.
GERMANY. Demographics blunt hope for a Gen-Z revolt.
You’re reading one of today’s five analyses.
Subscribe to read all five, every weekday.
UNITED STATES. Haley Mary
A last-minute switch won’t swing the midterms.
Congresswoman Haley Stevens, who lost Michigan’s Democratic Senate primary to Abdul El-Sayed, endorsed Republican candidate Mike Rogers, citing an ad that blamed Israel for high prices. Trump invited "smart" Stevens to switch parties.
INTELLIGENCE. The New York Times‘ final poll shows the Democrats ahead in all seven states that will decide the Senate, including Michigan. An attempt to probe the race in Alaska has been thrown out of court. Trump’s rallies in Iowa, Kansas, and Texas have underwhelmed. The lead in Maine is widening. As with Liz Cheney’s 2024 endorsement of Kamala Harris, Stevens move risks galvanising votes against a machine politician now seen as part of a “uniparty”.
FOR BUSINESS. Some Democrats may want to see El-Sayed lose, even if it costs control of the Senate, as this would slow the progressive wing’s momentum ahead of the more important 2028 presidential election. Yet endorsing a Trump candidate, and one who has played on a virulent Islamophobia, undermines a national campaign message on inflation, wellbeing and integrity, which promises to deliver a historic swing, despite GOP redistricting and spending.
IRAN. Home strait
Talks to head off renewed attacks may buy little time.
Oil futures fell as Axios said Trump had told Benjamin Netanyahu he wanted to give diplomacy more time amid concerns of an impending strike. Mojtaba Khamenei said any attack would be responded to “without geographical limitations”.