Winner's curse
Israel, Iran, currency markets, India, Canada, Thailand, the DRC, and Rwanda.
The five things you need to know today:
ISRAEL. IRAN. The allure of victory outweighs the reasons for caution.
MONETARY POLICY. The path to a new currency order remains unclear.
INDIA. CANADA. Leader diplomacy fails to calm the Khalistan issue.
THAILAND. The army builds up the case for a coup.
DR CONGO. RWANDA. A peace deal won’t hold without serious investment.
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ISRAEL. IRAN. All or nothing
The allure of victory outweighs the reasons for caution.
Attacks continued Thursday as Donald Trump said he "may" or "may not" bring the US into the conflict. Ali Khamenei said "the Iranian nation will not surrender". The IAEA said there was no proof of a "systematic" nuclear weapons effort.
INTELLIGENCE. There may not be a clear cause for involvement, and a YouGov poll says only 16% of Americans think it'd be a good idea, but Trump is preparing for action. The Wall Street Journal says he has approved plans pending a final decision. The Fifth Fleet has dispersed ships from their berths. A New York Times report of talks has been dismissed by the president as "a little late." Hawkish US general Erik "Gorilla” Kurilla is said to be pushing for battle.
FOR BUSINESS. Trump won’t want to split his base, but if he spots a winning trend, he’ll take the gamble. Israel is keen to show it’s winning and that any US intervention is not just necessary but would be short and sweet. Reports of low missile defences and unfalsifiable claims of secret Iranian stockpiles are adding tension, as is the propaganda of Iranian exiles spoiling for the Shah’s return. Tehran, meanwhile, appears to be holding back its biggest missiles.
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MONETARY POLICY. Pan’s labyrinth
The path to a new currency order remains unclear.
US stocks ended flat after the Federal Reserve unanimously decided to leave rates unchanged. People's Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng said the future monetary system could see “currencies co-exist, compete, check and balance.”
INTELLIGENCE. The Fed's decision was expected, as was Trump's reaction ("Too
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