Winter of discontent
The US, China, Ukraine, Russia, the UK, and the Caribbean.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
UNITED STATES. A killing in Minnesota threatens a shutdown or worse.
CHINA. Strongmen, not strategy, imperil Taiwan.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. With talks going nowhere, Putin takes the nuclear option.
BRITAIN. Starmer’s leadership looks increasingly shaky.
THE CARIBBEAN. A discombobulated policy may still meet Trump’s needs.
Geopolitical Dispatch is a daily strategic briefing for business leaders and investors, based on the US Presidential Daily Brief. Covering five top global developments at 5 am Eastern Time, Geopolitical Dispatch gives you visibility of events in context.
UNITED STATES. ICE storm
A killing in Minnesota threatens a shutdown or worse.
Immigration agents shot dead a Minneapolis ICU nurse Saturday, prompting Democrat threats to partially shut down the government. Republicans said they would not remove Homeland Security funding from this week’s appropriations bill.
INTELLIGENCE. Despite a nationwide cold snap, US politics has seldom seemed more combustible. Blame in both directions has been swift. The episode has not just accentuated divisions on migration and police violence, but gun rights, official transparency, and federal-state relations. The use of words like “terrorist” and “sedition” doesn’t help. A shutdown will only inflame the rancour. The possibility the White House invokes the Insurrection Act is not trivial.
FOR BUSINESS. Donald Trump has not joined some Republicans in welcoming the killing of Alex Pretti, leaving open the possibility of recalling ICE from Minnesota, but he has also denounced “Democrat ensued chaos”. Governor Tim Walz has meanwhile deployed the state national guard amid a dispute on who should lead the investigation. Minnesota-based firms have called for de-escalation but don’t want to be seen as partisan, as during George Floyd.
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CHINA. Weakest links
Strongmen, not strategy, imperil Taiwan.
Taipei said it was monitoring “abnormal” changes to the PLA’s leadership after Beijing placed two senior officers under investigation. The Pentagon’s National Defense Strategy said it would deter China through strength, not confrontation.
INTELLIGENCE. With the Central Military Commission's vice chair, Zhang Youxia,