Geopolitical Dispatch

Geopolitical Dispatch

With allies like these

Israel, Qatar, Iran, France, India, and Brazil.

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Michael Feller
Sep 10, 2025
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Ishmael Fighting with Isaac, unknown artist, c. 1400-10, tempera, gold and silver paint, and ink, illumination from Rudolf von Ems' Weltchronik, Getty Museum, Los Angeles.

Hello,

Here are the five things you need to know today:

  • ISRAEL. QATAR. Netanyahu shatters a security illusion.

  • IRAN. Progress, of sorts, is reached with the IAEA.

  • FRANCE. Macron appoints a younger vintage of PM.

  • INDIA. Modi grapples with conflicting signals.

  • BRAZIL. The battle for Bolsonaro’s succession steps up.

And don’t forget to connect with me on LinkedIn.

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ISRAEL. QATAR. Unfriendly fire

Netanyahu shatters a security illusion.

Israeli jets bombed a Hamas compound in Doha Tuesday, earning rebukes from Washington and Arab capitals. Donald Trump denied any involvement. Claiming its leaders had survived, Hamas said it would hold the US jointly responsible.

INTELLIGENCE. Israel’s critics have asked how a state that attacks its sponsor’s ally isn’t a rogue actor. Qatar’s critics have asked why it took so long to strike a state that protects Hamas, and once protected the Taliban. But the real question is how the US allowed one ally to attack another. If Washington can’t protect friends from each other, how can it guard against common enemies? Few, including in the US, believe the White House’s claim it was not involved.

FOR BUSINESS. This isn’t the first time Doha will feel abandoned. Under Trump 1.0, Saudi Arabia was able to conduct a de facto blockade against Qatar, which only ended ahead of Joe Biden’s inauguration. Israel's distrust of its great power sponsors runs deep. After gaining independence from Britain in 1948, an Englishman led the next day’s Arab invasion. Qatar claims mediation will continue, but the attacks seem designed to permanently destroy that option.

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IRAN. Nothing to see here

Progress, of sorts, is reached with the IAEA.

The International Atomic Energy Agency and Tehran agreed Tuesday to resume nuclear inspections but gave no details on when they would take place. Iran's foreign minister warned Europe against reinstating UN "snapback" sanctions.

INTELLIGENCE. The framework agreement may be enough for the E3 powers –

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