Worse things happen at sea
Iran, Pakistan, the US, Mexico, Canada, and Argentina.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. More vessels are seized as the crisis goes from acute to chronic.
PAKISTAN. With diplomacy on hold, an old crossroads returns.
UNITED STATES. Lost on economics, Trump turns to race, fraud, and UFOs.
MEXICO. CANADA. Grievances are aired before trade talks begin.
ARGENTINA. A surprise monthly contraction tests the reform agenda.
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IRAN. Cashing in the ships
More vessels are seized as the crisis goes from acute to chronic.
Brent crude returned to above $100 after Iran seized two ships in the Strait of Hormuz and the US intercepted three in the Indian Ocean. Donald Trump said he had no timeline for the war. Navy Secretary John Phelan abruptly left his role.
INTELLIGENCE. It’s unclear if Phelan quit or was sacked. The decision was allegedly more due to a lack of progress on shipbuilding than Iran (the media has pointed to his Epstein connections), but it still looks unusual. Energy prices are becoming structurally higher. Equity markets continue to rally but at a growing disconnect with underlying economic indicators. Responding to Trump’s claims of a regime split, Iran said it doesn’t know who’s running the US.
FOR BUSINESS. Wall Street is relieved the shooting war is over (for now). But a slow, mutual asphyxiation of Hormuz is in nobody’s interest, least of all the US, despite its own oil reserves. The International Energy Agency said the world faced the “biggest crisis in history”. This may be hyperbole, but it emphasises a worrying delta between investor and business sentiment, also seen in the gulf between physical and futures prices. One of these will be right. Both cannot.
PAKISTAN. Awkward visitors
With diplomacy on hold, an old crossroads returns.
The Pentagon denied claims that ships were hugging Pakistani territorial waters to evade the US blockade of Iran’s ports. Pakistani officials heralded the growth of the port of Gwadar, at the mouth of the Gulf of Oman, as a transhipment hub.
INTELLIGENCE. JD Vance and Iranian negotiators may have cancelled their trip to