Xi'll be coming round the mountain
China, Southeast Asia, the US, Australia, New Caledonia, India, and El Salvador.
🐣 NB: Geopolitical Dispatch is taking an Easter break, 18-21 April inclusive. Our final edition this week will be on Thursday, and then we’ll be back next Tuesday. 🐣
The five things you need to know today:
CHINA. SOUTHEAST ASIA. As Trump taunts, Xi travels.
UNITED STATES. AUSTRALIA. Red tape and protectionism risk sinking AUKUS.
NEW CALEDONIA. Reports of a French Pacific retreat.
INDIA. Muslim land reforms complicate Gulf diplomacy.
EL SALVADOR. Trump finds a new weapon against the courts.
Get full access to all five daily briefings. Upgrade today for our daily intelligence briefing written by former diplomats, modelled on the US Presidential Daily Brief, and relied on by business leaders and investors in over 140 countries.
CHINA. SOUTHEAST ASIA. Red carpet
As Trump taunts, Xi travels.
China and Vietnam signed 45 agreements Monday during a visit by Xi Jinping to Hanoi. Donald Trump said he didn't blame the two sides for meeting: "Meeting like, trying to figure out, 'how do we screw the United States of America?'"
INTELLIGENCE. Xi, who will visit Cambodia and Malaysia later this week, called his Indonesian counterpart Sunday and has conducted outreach to other leaders. Beijing frequently locks horns with its southern neighbours but has never stinted on personal diplomacy, which matters to the region. This is the opposite of the US, which until recently was seen as a benign influence, but whose presidents have consistently skipped the annual East Asia Summit gathering.
FOR BUSINESS. Since Barack Obama announced his 'pivot' in 2012, Asia has been waiting for the US to turn up. The first sign Washington wasn't serious was when it withdrew from the Trans-Pacific Partnership in 2016. The second was its rebranding of Asia as the ‘Indo-Pacific’, a military-oriented concept few in the region have willingly embraced. Trump’s tariffs may not be the final nail, but could come close. Either way, Xi will ensure he (improbably) looks like the good guy.
Geopolitical Dispatch is brought to you by Geopolitical Strategy. We help businesses map, monitor and manage geopolitical risks with expert advice from former ambassadors, diplomats and intelligence officials.
UNITED STATES. AUSTRALIA. Suboptimal
Red tape and protectionism risk sinking AUKUS.
US export controls will still apply to the AUKUS submarine program, Reuters reported Tuesday citing US officials. Delivery of the first (non-AUKUS) Columbia-class nuclear submarine could be delayed 18 months, Congress was told last week.
INTELLIGENCE. The submarine pillar of the Australia-UK-US (AUKUS) military technology pact was always built on