Geopolitical Dispatch

Geopolitical Dispatch

Yermak the knife

Ukraine, Russia, Spain, the US, Venezuela, and St Vincent.

Michael Feller's avatar
Michael Feller
Nov 28, 2025
∙ Paid
Messengers from Yermak at the red porch in front of Ivan the Terrible, Stanislaw Jakub Rostworowski, 1884, oil on canvas, Museum of Fine Arts, Yekaterinburg.

Hello,

Here are the five things you need to know today:

  • UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Back-channelling commences before the real talks begin.

  • SPAIN. As his authority crumbles, the prime minister clings on.

  • UNITED STATES. Trump unleashes on migrants from everywhere.

  • VENEZUELA. Washington says it will strike “very soon.”

  • SAINT VINCENT. With Godwin Friday, Taiwan may breathe a sigh of relief.

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UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Resigned to fate?

Back-channelling commences before the real talks begin.

Vladimir Putin said the US’s draft peace plan could form the basis of a deal, but it was “impossible” to hold talks with the “illegitimate” Volodymyr Zelensky. Kyiv’s chief negotiator Andriy Yermak said Zelensky would never “give up territory”.

INTELLIGENCE. Yermak, Zelensky’s chief of staff and the alleged “Ali Baba” in a series of graft recordings, is Ukraine’s éminence grise, and his comments to The Atlantic indicate he’d work to finalise a deal but would have to remove the president first. Yermak has reportedly sought to engage former army chief Valery Zaluzhny, but it’s unclear if Zaluzhny will want Yermak around if he takes the presidency. Zaluzhny may also share Zelensky’s alleged views on territory.

FOR BUSINESS. Last week, it was Zelensky who was rumoured to want to fire Yermak. Either way, if peace is to be achieved, many officials will need to leave their roles first. This makes negotiations likely to take longer than the initial four-day deadline Trump gave. The other spanner is Europe. On Thursday, Italy extradited to Germany a Ukrainian suspected of sabotaging the Nord Stream gas pipeline on orders from Zaluzhny (and possibly Washington).

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SPAIN. The Quixotisation of Sanchez

As his authority crumbles, the prime minister clings on.

Ex-Transport Minister Jose Luis Abalos was ordered to prison on remand Thursday for his alleged role in a Covid supplies scandal. Attorney-General Alvaro Garcia Ortiz resigned after being found guilty of leaking information in a separate case.

INTELLIGENCE. Besides his minority government’s reliance on parties like Catalonia’s

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