Geopolitical Dispatch

Geopolitical Dispatch

Share this post

Geopolitical Dispatch
Geopolitical Dispatch
You’re gonna get tired of win-win cooperation
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More

You’re gonna get tired of win-win cooperation

China, the US, pharmaceuticals, India, Pakistan, Ukraine, Russia, and the Middle East.

Michael Feller's avatar
Michael Feller
May 12, 2025
∙ Paid
12

Share this post

Geopolitical Dispatch
Geopolitical Dispatch
You’re gonna get tired of win-win cooperation
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More
4
Share
Mission Accomplished, Robert Benney, 1944, detail of advertisement for the Electric Boat Company, New York.

The five things you need to know today:

  • CHINA. UNITED STATES. Beijing helps Washington to sell a mistake.

  • PHARMACEUTICALS. Trump’s cure could be worse than the disease.

  • INDIA. PAKISTAN. In announcing a truce, the US may damage a partnership.

  • UKRAINE. RUSSIA. By sidestepping a ceasefire, peace might move forward.

  • THE MIDDLE EAST. The Gulf eyes a reverse-Abraham.

You may have noticed that to celebrate two years of Geopolitical Dispatch, we recently lifted our paywall. For continued access to all five daily briefings, upgrade your subscription today through the link below.

CHINA. UNITED STATES. Mission accomplice

Beijing helps Washington to sell a mistake.

China and the US announced they would cut reciprocal tariffs from 125% to 10% for 90 days early Monday. The US would retain its 20% “fentanyl” tariffs on all Chinese goods plus separate 25% “section 232” rates on steel, autos and aluminium.

INTELLIGENCE. The deal looks like a breakthrough, but it's a temporary return to status quo ante. Despite calling it a “total reset”, few of Donald Trump's objectives have been achieved. Instead, US firms have another three months of uncertainty in the lead up to Christmas (stockpiling is to be expected). Walmart reports earnings this week and how it frames its forward outlook may provide more useful guidance than anything on the president's Truth Social handle.

FOR BUSINESS. After a tepid day in Asian markets stocks have had a late rally. Futures point to a strong US open. On the surface, US goods can enter China taxed at half the earlier rate, but whether this holds will depend largely on what the US does going forward in terms of its 232 and fentanyl duties. And this gets to the nub of the dilemma: does Trump want freer trade with China, a lower goods deficit, a stronger US manufacturing sector, or something else?

Geopolitical Dispatch is brought to you by Geopolitical Strategy. We help businesses map, monitor and manage geopolitical risks with expert advice from former ambassadors, diplomats and intelligence officials.

Connect on LinkedIn

PHARMACEUTICALS. Without fear or favour

Trump’s cure could be worse than the disease.

Donald Trump said Sunday he would order a cut in pharmaceutical prices to "most favoured nation" reference levels. The order is expected to go beyond the drugs that were subject to Medicare negotiation in the Inflation Reduction Act.

INTELLIGENCE. Going after Big Pharma is good politics, but pressure on the sector’s share prices could undo much of the tariff rally Trump

Keep reading with a 7-day free trial

Subscribe to Geopolitical Dispatch to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.

Already a paid subscriber? Sign in
© 2025 Geopolitical Strategy Pty Ltd
Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start writingGet the app
Substack is the home for great culture

Share

Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More