Yours insincerely

The US, Israel, Palestine, Turkey, Kenya, and South Africa.

The path of routine, Benjamin Rabier, Illustration from Ménagerie, 1906, Librairie Garnier Frères, Paris.

The five things you need to know today:

• UNITED STATES. By going postal, a tariff reckoning is delayed.

• ISRAEL. PALESTINE. Netanyahu plays his Trump cards.

• TURKEY. Erdogan confounds the opposition and co-opts the Kurds.

• KENYA. Ruto’s security dilemma has global implications.

• SOUTH AFRICA. Pressure builds on the ANC.

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UNITED STATES. Snail mail

By going postal, a tariff reckoning is delayed.

Donald Trump published letters to the leaders of 14 countries, mostly in Asia, outlining trade levies of 25-40%, but hinted at the chance for negotiation. The president signed an executive order extending the tariff deadline to 1 August.

INTELLIGENCE. The letters, written in Trump's inimitable style and some addressed to titular heads of state like Thailand's king, were shocking in their lack of protocol, but markets have largely shrugged them off, seeing them as a mechanism by which the president can extend his deadline without appearing to chicken out. They’re neither likely to be the end point in negotiations, nor a reliable guide to what will. But at least Trump can pretend to be in control.

FOR BUSINESS. While not damaging for markets in the short term, in the long term, the letters will only further damage US credibility, particularly with allies like Japan and South Korea, as well as the emerging markets of Southeast Asia. As Trump published his letters, Marco Rubio announced he would, after all, attend this week's ASEAN foreign ministers meeting, after previously being understood to ditch it. He will have a lot of diplomatic repair work to do.

Ahead of President Trump’s 9 July trade deal deadline, we have outlined four scenarios for what could come next. We would love to hear your views.

ISRAEL. PALESTINE. Strip poker

Netanyahu plays his Trump cards.

Donald Trump hosted Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House Monday as Steve Witkoff was dispatched to stalled Gaza talks in Doha. Israel’s security minister called for negotiators to be recalled and for Hamas to be "starved to death".

INTELLIGENCE. The death of five soldiers in a roadside bomb has given cause for