3 Comments
May 2Liked by Geopolitical Dispatch

I would go with Pax Americana Redux. Why? Because we have the innate strength and canniness of a hybrid people, also innovative and able to pull together quickly despite seeming radical divisions, as we did after Pearl Harbor, 911. All we need is the will, and that, I believe, somehow will come.

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May 1Liked by Geopolitical Dispatch

Short term I would go with Game of Thrones and long term with the Hidden Dragon. Hidden Dragon could also be combined or facilitated by a period of Mad Max.

However, the Hidden Dragon depends on China's capacity to put at use its critical minerals and attempt for high-tech supremacy in mobility, communications and military. If protectionism will not stop China, then we will be in a scenario where only force will be able to do that. I also agree that it is unusual for a superpower to give up its position without a fight.

I tend to disagree that Brexit was an event that accelerated the end of Pax Americana because it did not challenge the US in any way, but maybe you see it from the perspective of disturbing an established order. On the assumption that before the Cold War we didn't know if the world would be under British, Nazi or Communist domination, I would say that the most improbable was clearly the Communist order. For two decades USSR was totally isolated and apparently with no expansionist ambitions. The most probable was a Nazi Europe challenging a British Empire to get some overseas colonies. However, the raise of a dominant power on the Old Continent has always been a "red line" for the British, so this situation could not have persisted in the long run.

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Apr 28Liked by Geopolitical Dispatch

I enjoyed this. Anarchy tends to be most destructive to women so it's a hard 'no' for me, thus the rejection of anarcho-capitalism. Some state will always exists if for no other reason than to protect resources/borders/property. There is a fifth/low probability but potential scenario. We muddle along understanding that there is NO place in the world that will get by the next decade unscathed and that cooperation where the globe can is mutually beneficial. If I were a gambler, I'd bet heavily on North America, particularly if it strengthens its foundations, institutions and cooperative structures,

This doesn't make me naive, just pragmatic. Its a real viable option,

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