
The five things you need to know today:
MIDDLE EAST. UNITED STATES. Trump’s dealmaking prowess is put to the test.
CANADA. A central banker tries his hands at politics.
BRITAIN. The policy missteps keep mounting.
BULGARIA. ROMANIA. Unexpected alliances in a volatile region.
SRI LANKA. CHINA. India’s strategic nightmare returns.
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MIDDLE EAST. UNITED STATES. Out of the bottle
Trump’s dealmaking prowess is put to the test.
Benjamin Netanyahu said his cabinet would vote on the US-backed ceasefire with Hamas Saturday, delaying hostage releases by at least a day if approved. Ministers threatened to quit. Turkey slammed Israel for attacks on Syrian forces.
INTELLIGENCE. As soon as a tentative truce was announced, it began unravelling. Yet unlike previous efforts, Netanyahu is less willing to ignore the concerns of US mediators, with Donald Trump having put his stamp on it (warranted or not). This risks backfiring on the president-elect, who will apportion blame to others but rue a thwarted victory lap. As he found last time, deals in the Middle East are hard, especially when a once-confined conflict spreads.
FOR BUSINESS. October 7 took a genie out of the bottle that won’t return. Even a best-case deal, where Riyadh recognises Israel, Iran democratises, and Palestine rebuilds, won’t make everyone happy. The conflict is generational, and its causes will take generations to fix. Security can improve when bad actors are removed, as in Lebanon, but new ones will re-appear without development and reconciliation. And Trump seems less interested in such efforts.
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CANADA. Super Mark’s kryptonite
A central banker tries his hands at politics.
Former Bank of England governor Mark Carney announced his bid to replace Justin Trudeau as Liberal Party leader Thursday. Trudeau launched a Canada-US advisory council to help the government deal with Trump's looming threats.
INTELLIGENCE. Harvard and Oxford-educated, ex-Goldman Sachs, and a citizen of three countries, Carney is Davos Man incarnate (though