Week signals: The spirit of '68
Plus: watch points for Venezuela, Syria, diplomacy in Asia, France, and natural disaster.
This week:
IN REVIEW. Lame ducks, black swans, and the dangers of continuity with change.
UP AHEAD. Venezuela votes, Syria reintegrates, foreign ministers travel, France puts out fires, and California is on fire.
The Week in Review: If it looks like a lame duck...
The week began with Joe Biden announcing his withdrawal by Twitter. The political equivalent of breaking up by text, Biden followed the news with a mid-week address, delivered at a near whisper, saying everything except what was obvious: here was a man not just old, but exhausted.
It’s no wonder Democrat fortunes have soared. Donald Trump’s national lead has been erased. The new candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris, has injected vigour. Trump will now need to debate policy as well as personality.
But for Harris, this is a concern. While personality is subjective (and subjectively, she’ll give Trump a run for his money), policy contests tend not to favour incumbents. Existing, so to speak, in the context of all that came before, Harris wears the fault of loose borders, high inflation and global chaos, even if she may be personally blameless. And for as long as she remains Biden’s deputy as candidate, she’ll be seen as an extension of his presidency. This was never a problem for candidate Biden, who promised a return to the popular Obama years. But it’ll be a problem for candidate Harris, with Biden having a net approval rating of -17%.
The White House has rubbished speculation Biden will resign. Having him withdraw was challenge enough. Harris needs space to campaign, the argument goes. But having her take over has a political logic. Not only would it allow her to be more unburdened by what has been, it would give her stature as America’s first female president. Moreover, it would allow her to make her own stamp on policy. Already, she has shown a clear difference on Israel (which may energise her base and bring out more young voters). She can show her difference on issues like abortion too.
There’s also a geopolitical logic.