Week signals: A dumb theory
Plus: watch points for Congress, trade, France, China, and Iran.
This week:
IN REVIEW. Brain snaps and bad decisions, irrationality as organising principle, kakistocracy vs the state.
UP AHEAD. Voting in Florida, tariffs in the White House, Le Pen's day in court, the TikTok decision, and a letter from Iran.
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The Week in Review: An idiot’s guide to history
The week began with the calling of a snap poll in Canada. It ended with a snap visit by JD Vance to Greenland.
But the week may be most remembered for a series of brain snaps in Washington, which, ahead of next week’s “Liberation Day” on reciprocal tariffs, have produced yet more market turmoil and policy uncertainty.
The first of these snaps was the announcement of “secondary tariffs” on purchases of Venezuelan oil.
Alongside Caracas’s acquiescence on increased deportation flights, plus an extension of Chevron’s waiver period, the move was unexpected. Likewise, ahead of Marco Rubio’s visit to neighbouring Guyana, the tariffs seemed an odd way to encourage Nicolas Maduro’s cooperation.
But most of all, the idea of secondary tariffs – whereby third countries that purchase Venezuelan crude will be subjected to 25% duties from the US – turns a trade tool into a sanctions-like instrument of coercion. Sure, it was always thus (at least for Donald Trump), but now it’s official. Watch out for others to now follow suit.
The second was the announcement of 25% “permanent” automotive tariffs, which have roiled Detroit carmakers but have been welcomed by the unions and, seemingly, Tesla.
The decision to implement these, irrespective of USMCA commitments, appears to be the final nail for free trade. It’s possible that, like previous measures and the Venezuela example above, they’ll be more a temporary cudgel than a long-term policy, but rhetoric suggests otherwise, and the damage to business and consumer confidence is already done. Unsurprisingly, more economists are seeing a policy-induced recession.
And the third was the leak of a private Signal conversation between senior US officials on operations in Yemen.
The brain snap, in this case, appears to have been National Security Adviser Mike Waltz’s decision to invite the editor of The Atlantic to the chat, where classified matters were discussed on an unclassified system. But this was not just damaging for optics and OPSEC (i.e., operational security), but for diplomacy.
Included in The Atlantic’s scoop were comments around getting Europe to pay for the operations. Providing security-as-a-service may make sense in parts of the business community, but in geopolitics, it’s what kills a hegemonic order.
What the week showed was how brain snaps and bad decisions are as much a feature of geopolitics – or indeed more of a feature – as genius and good decisions.
When history is taught in school, great deeds are both organising principle and illustrative example. Galileo’s discoveries, the invention of the steam engine, the Gettysburg address, and the landing on the moon.
Yet what makes these noteworthy is that they’re rare. Most people don’t invent gunpowder or circumnavigate the globe. Most days go by without a D-Day or the fall of the Berlin Wall. Most music isn’t JS Bach or even Britney Spears.
History is less good things happening, bending the arc toward progress, but, in the words of Barack Obama, “stupid shit”. History may be written by the winners, but it’s often a tale told by an idiot. For every Giza Pyramid, there’s a million dung heaps. For every Shakespeare, there are a thousand Romantasy titles. For every Churchill, there’s a Hitler. For every Napoleon there’s also a Napoleon.
If you think Trump is playing 3D-chess on trade, Russia, or the economy, the incompetence of “Signalgate” and the haphazardness of his executive orders should disabuse you. Further, even to give Trump the benefit of the doubt, the best of us make mistakes. Another lesson of history is that of contingency (i.e., cock-up over conspiracy). And as with Occam’s razor (the simplest explanation is usually correct), a good rule of thumb is Hanlon’s razor (never attribute to malice what’s explained by error).
A counterpart of Hanlon’s razor is the Peter principle (in a hierarchy, leaders rise to their level of incompetence). Often, as in Signalgate, leaders can rise above this level (per the Dilbert principle). And sometimes they can even rise to the level of the nation-state.