Week signals: No country for old kings
Plus: watch points for Venezuela, Guyana, India, the UK, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia.
Hello,
In this edition of Week Signals:
IN REVIEW. George III to Charles III; age, leadership and feedback; angry young men and women; lessons from Europe and Japan.
UP AHEAD. Debates on Essequibo; results for West Bengal; Starmer’s Götterdämmerung; Taiwanese diplomacy; and the ASEAN leaders’ summit.
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The Week in Review: Gerontocracy and its discontents
The week began with an assassination attempt at the White House Correspondents’ dinner. It ended with Donald Trump declaring not so much victory in Iran, but – for the purposes of congressional reauthorisation – a “termination” of the war, because there was a ceasefire. A naval blockade remains. The clock starts afresh. Trump, anointed by or as God – depending on the day on Truth Social – remains president, or perhaps king. It was, after all, the week when he hosted a real king, Charles III, to help celebrate the 250th anniversary of US independence.
It was a big week by any measure, and particularly so for a man soon to enter his ninth decade. But Trump wanted you to know on Thursday that it all was okay:
Anybody running for President or Vice President should be forced to take a Cognitive Examination prior to entering the Race! By doing so, we wouldn’t be surprised at people like Barack “Hussein” Obama, or Sleepy Joe Biden, getting “ELECTED.” Our Country would be a much better place! I took the Exam three times during my (“THREE!”) Terms as President, and ACED IT ALL THREE TIMES — An Achievement that, even on a single Exam, according to the Doctors, has rarely been done before! President DONALD J. TRUMP
To be fair, Trump seems more energetic than a man half his age. And measured by executive orders – let alone war, peace, and policy U-turns – he is probably more energetic than any president since Franklin D Roosevelt, who, stricken by polio, could also be forgiven for a far less hectic pace.
In January, following his threats to invade Greenland, we wrote about Trump’s psychology, as seen largely through the writings of his niece, Mary Trump, a registered psychologist. This week, it seems a good time to write a follow-up on Trump’s mental acuity and the reality, as of next month, that there’ll be another octogenarian in the White House.
Beyond Trump’s evident narcissism and antisociality – drivers of a unique personality and presidency – he is exhibiting signs of cognitive decline. That is not meant to be a partisan statement. Like many, we had the same concerns about Joe Biden. And if this were any other country or president, knowing that a commander-in-chief sleeps in meetings, rambles through speeches, or confuses mathematics, people, or countries, should be of key concern to any business or investor.
Following our report last week on the rumours around replacing Trump with JD Vance, lest the midterms prove terminal (gerrymanders notwithstanding), such an analysis should also warrant scrutiny for anyone considering invoking the 25th Amendment. Trump may have nine lives, but almost nine decades in, he’s mortal like the rest of us. All leaders have an expiry date. And, as was so frequently reminded this week, one of the reasons the US parted with Britain 250 years ago was because they didn’t want anything to do with what Percy Bysshe Shelley would later call “an old, mad, blind, despised, and dying king”.
Whether Trump goes in 2028, before or after the midterms, or – per the hopes of Steve Bannon and others – at some point beyond, it’s worth asking as well what lessons we can draw from other gerontocratic regimes, past and present, to assess what might happen next. It’s worth asking, too, whether gerontocracy, in an era of extended career paths, late Baby Boomer retirement, and longevity bros, will in fact become a global norm (perhaps alongside plutocracy and kakistocracy), as it was in Ancient Sparta or the 1970s Soviet Union. Beyond Donald Trump, what are the fiscal, cultural and technological implications for such a political order? Is this yet another point of pressure for the young – between AI stealing graduate jobs and empty-nesters staying in entry-level homes – or are there benefits here that the pundits might otherwise ignore?